Electoral Math

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November 07, 2012

1 note

Overall, my popular vote projection held up pretty well with a difference of 0.54% nationally between my projection and the actual outcome.

At the state level however, only 1 state was projected within 1% of the actual outcome (highlighted in green), 14 more were within 2% (yellow), and 6 more were within 3%.

The average difference was 4.10%, with a standard deviation of 2.87%. This would represent roughly that my projection was twice as accurate as any individual poll.

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November 07, 2012

Florida, Florida, Florida

Pres. Obama currently leads in Florida by 47,000 votes (0.56%), although the 29 electoral votes attached to victory have not yet been called. It looks very mich like I’m going to have picked Florida incorrectly. The margin of victory I had projected for Mitt Romney was 1.23%. Certainly a 1.79% difference with the result is not a major miss, but it’s looking an awful lot between the perfect map or not.

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November 07, 2012

3 notes

Signing off

1 state left and I’m still perfect. As a reminder, here’s my final map from yesterday.

Florida hasn’t been called yet, but Obama leads by 60,000 votes with 92% reporting. Looks like Florida will be my only miss. In 2008, I only missed Indiana. My popular vote projection at this point is a little bluer than the actual electorate, but I think I’m going to end up pretty close. Most of the uncounted votes at this point are on the west coast where Obama will make significant gains in the popular vote. We’ll see tomorrow how it ends up.

For now, have a good night.

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November 07, 2012